Bill James' blog

I was asked to play the role of futurologist for a CVL newsletter this month, so I reached for inspiration on style of predictions; I went straight to the wise words of my favourite author on the subject, Scott Adams. He writes in the The Dilbert Future!, “There are many methods for predicting the future. For example, you can read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, or crystal balls. Collectively, these methods are known as ‘nutty methods’. Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, more commonly referred to as ‘a complete waste of time’.”

Shift happens!

So with all that said here is what I think will happen in the next ten years?

Bill’s Prediction No.1 – we’ll be hiding from the data deluge

We’ve been riding the broadband wave for at least 6 years and will continue to do so for several years in our pursuit of ‘always on’ high speed access. The telecoms world has been obsessed with how many households and users have broadband access and how fast that access is, but we will get bored of these figures when we have something else more interesting to talk about.

Fixed line access speeds will improve and the emerging mobile broadband technologies mean we will have enough bandwidth for all our needs wherever we are – but with all this fast access at our fingertips in 10 years what we will really want is to be ‘sometimes off’.

Broadband speeds of 10Mb will be the norm even on the move, but more of us will be seeking out blind spots to hide from the constant deluge of data.

Bill’s Prediction No.2 – where did I put my invisible communication device?

Currently, fashionable trends seem to take about twenty to thirty years before they appear again – just look at how many kids today are wearing skinny jeans, going to open air rock concerts and think that Paul Weller, Chopper bicycles and Blake’s 7 are cool. We could see 1998 technology becoming fashionable again in 2018. What does that mean? It means you and I will be using the latest micro-sized devices and the kids of the day will be showing off their brick-sized mobile phones.

Everyone will have mobile phones and most of us will have a selection to choose from, depending on our mood and what we are doing that day. There’ll even be options to build your phone into your clothes, and some early adopters will be integrating their communications devices into their own bodies to create a cyborg solution.

Bill’s Prediction No.3 – the telly will always be on

Our pattern of TV viewing is on the verge of a major shift – and shift is the key word here – from the ‘sit back and receive’ style we grew up with to a mode in which we enjoy more control over what we watch and when we watch it. As the Personal Video Recorder (PVR) becomes more commonplace in our living rooms more of us are watching ‘timeshift TV’, i.e. watching our favourite programmes when it suits us rather than as scheduled. Within 10 years we will benefit from the ability to enjoy ‘placeshift TV’, i.e. take our TV schedule with us when we travel so those favourite programmes are available on a TV, PC or mobile device wherever we are.

Bill’s Prediction No.4 – shopping only for experiences

As the technology improves, and as we get more and more comfortable with the security and reliability of the ordering and delivery processes, we will do all our ordering online. The actual shopping experience will be much more interesting as stores become showrooms and more retailers focus on creating ‘experience stores’ like this extreme sports store in Florida.

Bill’s Prediction No.5 – these, and all other predictions, will turn out to be entirely untrue

The one thing that is certain with predictions is that they will not be right. History is littered with awsome predictive errors including some made by the most prestigious of scientists Try this for British technological foresight at its finest:

“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.”

- Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878.