I recently stumbled across some research offering the 2006 Outlook for wireless operators, my eye was caught by the following statement in the summary; “alternative wireless broadband technologies will start to build momentum (but not Mobile WiMAX) and the growing community of VoIP users cannot be ignored for much longer”.
Here is the story…
With c. 3 million 3G PC card users worldwide, cellular operators are starting to bring on board meaningful high-speed Internet access revenue streams. Alongside traditional PC card services, 2005 also saw a number of operators bring W-CDMA modem/routers to the residential market, most notably O2 and Vodafone in Germany. As an alternative to a multi-megabit fixed broadband service capable of delivering multimedia services, cellular networks are clearly fighting a losing battle, but a number of operators see a niche for lower-user broadband or dial-up customers where mobility may also be an appeal. Young low-occupancy households have been an early target where the user may not want to pay for a broadband subscription they are rarely at home to use.
Service opportunities in this area are clearly boosted by the availability of flat-rate plans, which are generally still limited to the US at this point in time (flat-rate plans in other regions typically carry a usage cap). They will be enhanced further by the growing availability in 2006 of CDMA2000 1x EV-DO services and the launch of HSDPA services – both able to offer average download speeds around the 500kbps mark. Strategy Analytics expects to see more marketing of cellular-only packages into the younger end of the market in 2006, combining the cellphone with either a PC card or 3G modem/router.
However, as cellular operators look for some fixed Internet replacement business, alternative mobile broadband will also gain traction and impact 3G offers. Mobile WiMAX will not happen in 2006. With the 802.16e standard only ratified in the last few weeks of December 2005, we do not expect to see any commercial deployments this year. However the alternatives do exist and are growing in use:
- With UK Broadband still yet to mobilize its TDD service, IPWireless did deliver a number of mobile broadband UMTS TDD networks to Eastern Europe in 2005 (Lithuania, Czech Republic). 2006 will be a big year for UMTS TDD though, with Japan’s IPMobile planning an October launch and SprintNextel currently trialing the technology using its 2.5GHz spectrum in Washington DC;
- SprintNextel is also understood to be planning a trial of WiBro with Samsung. WiBro services will see their first commercial launch in Korea in the Spring, from both Korea Telecom and SK Telecom (the 3rd licensee Hanaro Telecom has already returned its WiBro license to the government). These launches will be watched closely for an indication of the potential of Mobile WiMAX, which will be fully compatible with WiBro;
- Qualcomm’s US$600 million acquisition of Flarion is expected to complete in late January 2006. Flarion’s Flash-OFDM technology had mixed fortunes in 2005. Nextel’s extended trial was halted following its acquisition by Sprint, though it was boosted by a network launch in Slovakia and a license win in Finland;
- ArrayComm’s iBurst solution also remains in the running in the mobile broadband arena, with Australia and South Africa both with live iBurst networks.
SprintNextel’s activities in the 2.5GHz band are of particular interest here. With a “use or lose” clause added to this holding in order to get FCC clearance for the merger, they are required to offer services to 15 million consumers within four years and 30 million within six years. The company is clearly investing a lot of effort at present to pick the best technology.
While much of the debate centers on the extent to which Mobile WiMAX will supersede these technologies or the extent to which EV-DO or HSDPA (and their future iterations) offer a better alternative, the US and Taiwan set to work building their WiFi cities. Major city deployments include Taipei and Philadelphia, with many smaller towns and cities (predominantly in the US) also joining in. Of most interest are Google’s WiFi plans. It already has approval for blanket coverage of its home town of Mountain View, CA and has proposed a network covering San Francisco, all offering free access for all. Cellular has always won in terms of ubiquitous coverage with no history to date of successful limited mobility wireless networks, but WiFi is refusing to lie down in the battle for mobile users.
So I asked around a bit and the word I got was keep your eye on WiMAX it’s going to be a very important development, maybe not in ’06 but probably in ’07.
